Weekly Spread Report.

I'll be the first to admit that no one knows more than Vegas about the probable outcomes of sporting events. Their "wisdom of crowds" approach is theoretically sound and has a long track record of success. If you want to know which team is more likely to win this week's matchup, checking the spreads at various sportsbooks is a good way to find out.

That said, the bookmakers are not always right about the strength of certain teams, not to mention that there are tons of factors that affect the outcome of a game well outside the predictable realm of skill/talent/planning/reason.

Each week, I'm going to look at the spreads for the coming weekend's college football games and point out betting lines that I think are interesting, either because they defy the conventional wisdom, or seemingly fall prey to it. (FYI: I get the spreads from here.)

Week 4:

1. USC Trojans (-21.5) at Washington State Cougars. This spread isn't actually surprising or interesting in any way, but I'd like to point out that it does depend upon the in-game decision-making of Lane Kiffin. Last week, as an 11.5-point favorite over Minnesota, Kiffin called for three two-point conversions, all failed, resulting in the Trojans winning by exactly 11 points, to the dismay of gamblers everywhere. My prediction: USC 31, WSU 10.[Sidenote: Jacob, I know you hate the PAT, but do you think it is a valuable strategy to always go for two-point conversions as an alternative? With success rates around 43%, I'd say no, logically, but that is before factoring in excitement points.]

2. Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ohio State Buckeyes (-42.5). Sure, Ohio state is six touchdowns better than Eastern Michigan, but Tressel has never been one to rub it in. On top of that, Ohio State begins conference play the following week, and should take the opportunity to rest their starters sometime in the second quarter. My prediction: Eastern Michigan 6, Ohio State 42.

3. North Texas at Florida Atlantic (-8). The Mean Green travel to take on the Owls this weekend and--wait a minute, who the FUCK is betting on this game?

4. Georgia at Mississippi St (-1.5). The times they are a-changing! Georgia is an underdog at perennial SEC bottom-feeder Mississippi State? It makes sense, in a way, given their recent performances. However, I think it's about time these teams both start playing like they're supposed to. Prediction: Georgia 37, Miss St 20.

5. Oregon State at Boise State (-16.5). I know Boise State always wins every game they play, ever, but this is a LOT of respect. I think BSU will win, but Oregon State is not a bad team, and they haven't lost a game by more than ten points since 2008. My prediction: Boise State 35, OSU 24.

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